All Eyes on Iran
Also, the Lebanese army claims to have defeated Hezbollah, what really happened in the Putin-Netanyahu conversations, and more.
Tens of thousands in the city of Mashhad last night.
It’s Friday, January 9, and all eyes are on Iran as tens of thousands take to the streets of major cities. Meanwhile, Trump is preparing to meet Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s self-proclaimed crown prince living in exile, next week.
There are three major developments worth noting.
First, the protests have spread dramatically. As of last night, 340 protests have taken place across all of Iran’s 31 provinces, and the movement has officially lasted longer than the demonstrations that began last June. Reports indicate that regime forces have abandoned several cities in western Iran, and that the financial sector—which historically stayed out of politics—is now backing the protests.
Second, Ayatollah Khamenei is doubling down. In his remarks today, he told Trump to “mind his own business” and warned that Iran “will not tolerate protesters serving foreign interests.” The regime seems to have decided to crush this uprising, and the excuse it will use is all too predictable. Personally, I wouldn’t poke the Trump bear—especially while he’s in a dictator-toppling mood.
Lastly, the regime has cut off internet access nationwide—the next stage of repression. It’s not the first time; they did the same last June. And there are still steps to follow: mass arrests, shooting protesters, and larger IRGC displays of force. Last time, Elon Musk stepped in and activated Starlink to restore communications. Let’s hope he does so again.
A quick reminder, last Friday Venezuela was still ruled by Nicolás Maduro, and the Iranian protests were relatively small.
Let’s hope this weekend proves equally eventful.
Deployment of Lebanese army forces in Yaroun in southern Lebanon.
Imagine a magician taking the stage for a disappearing act. With a dramatic sweep of his cape and a flash of his wand, the assistant vanishes—only for everyone to see her sprinting behind the stage while the audience is expected to cheer.
That’s essentially what the Lebanese army has done, declaring that it has disarmed south of the Litani River “in an effective and tangible way.” Like a polite audience member, Israel responded: “An encouraging beginning, but far from sufficient.”
Hezbollah, for its part, is happy to play along with the illusion. The group knows that openly reemerging right now would be suicidal. But as everyone can see, the terror group hasn’t gone anywhere. Reports suggest Hezbollah has received around $1 billion in funding since the cease-fire, and however slow its recovery, the trajectory is unmistakably upward.
So why are the Lebanese suddenly declaring victory?
Well, the army set a year-end deadline to clear “non-state weaponry”—code for Hezbollah—from southern Lebanon. And in Trump world, deadlines have become things you don’t want to cross.
But much like the trick, nobody’s fooled. And if they really want to see a certain someone disappear, they’ll have to wait for that encouraging audience member to step onto the stage.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin meeting in 2018. (@netanyahu/X)
Every so often, a notice is published about a conversation between the president of Russia and the prime minister of Israel. It is usually brief, always laconic, and never details who called whom or what was said. As is well known, the public’s right to know is not Vladimir Putin’s guiding star.
In recent months, there have been at least two calls initiated by Jerusalem. Their subject was the delivery of a clear message: Israel has no interest in another round of military exchanges and certainly will not initiate one. In at least one case, the immediate trigger was warnings by Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Liberman of an imminent clash with Iran. The Iranians are not versed in the irreparable rift between him and Netanyahu, or between Bennett and the government. From their perspective, when a former defense minister calls on the public to stay near protected spaces, and a former prime minister posts a tweet with sand running out of an hourglass (try explaining that it’s a countdown to a reservists’ conference), these are pre-attack signals. Those who were scalded by boiling water in June, when they failed to read all the clear signals—including an explicit tweet by the U.S. embassy—are now cautious even of the cold water of opposition statements. For them, every tweet by the two is like a Hamas SIM card lighting up.
Putin passed the message to the Iranians again and again. The impression here was that it was internalized and absorbed. But the regime’s enormous weakness, combined with post-trauma from “Rising Lions” still arouses concern. Were it not for that, one could say with confidence that Israel is not planning to strike soon. The unwillingness to be drawn into a cycle-based policy with Iran, together with the achievement of enlisting Trump also in the fight against ballistic missiles, plus American threats to intervene if the regime continues to murder protesters—all of these signal Israel to wait patiently on the sidelines. How much patience? The previous regime fell only after eleven months of protests. In Israel, they hope the digital age will accelerate processes, but estimate the timeline will not be measured in days, nor even weeks.
A more immediate and urgent matter is the expanding dispute extending to Lebanon and action against Hezbollah. The army has no shortage of aerial targets and would also be happy, on this occasion, to expand its ground presence to a few more commanding points. But the main question is, why hunt the mosquitoes if there is a chance that the swamp from which they drink is about to dry up anyway?
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom
To read this article on my website click here
Elimelech Stern leaving his hearing in November 2025. (Screengrabs used in accordance with Section 27a of the Copyright Law)
Let’s end the week with something funny. Israel has just convicted one of the 35 Iranian spies caught recently in the country—but despite the seriousness, the whole affair reads more like The Naked Gun than James Bond.
Iran’s espionage attempts have long been unintentionally comic. While Israel’s intelligence network quietly dismantles layers of Iranian security—leading to the assassination of nearly the entire military hierarchy during the June war—Iran’s agents in Israel seem to prefer wandering near government sites taking photos on their phones.
Enter Elimelech Stern, a full-time Torah student who was recruited for different missions: set fires, smash windows, and deliver threats to senior Israeli officials.
But Stern didn’t want to set fires, so—apparently—the matter was dropped.
In another incident, his Iranian handler instructed him to leave a gift at the home of Israel’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency: the head of a lamb beside a bouquet of flowers.
Stern replied that he couldn’t find an animal head. The handler offered to buy him a whole lamb, but Stern wasn’t keen on that either. Eventually, the handler settled on the head of a large stuffed animal, a knife, and a bouquet of flowers, and asked Stern to place them all in a gift box. In the end, Stern didn’t want to include the knife out of fear of getting arrested.
But perhaps the funniest moment came during his trial, when his rabbi took the stand as a character witness. His concern apparently had nothing to do with espionage or sabotage. Instead, he said:
“Our Head Rabbi treats phones and computers as the root of all evil. When we heard about this story, there was an earthquake throughout all of the community—just from the fact that he used a smartphone at all.”
Given that Stern is far from the first Haredi to be caught spying for Iran, his rabbi might have a point.
Shabbat Shalom!
We’ll be back on Sunday.
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