It’s Noon in Israel: Iran F’ed Around and They’re About to Find Out
Also, Netanyahu looks to wean Israel from U.S. aid, and a new operation in Gaza is two months away.
We have officially moved to Substack! To prevent future editions from getting lost in your Promotions or Spam folder, please drag this email into your Primary Inbox right now.
If you are reading this in the Substack app, I highly recommend checking your email settings to ensure you get the full delivery directly to your inbox. (Also, replying “Received” to this email helps the algorithm know we are friends!)
Now, onto today’s analysis...
A protester takes down the flag from Iran’s London embassy and replaces it with a pre-Islamic revolution flag yesterday. (Screengrab used in accordance with Section 27a of the Copyright Law/X)
It’s Sunday, January 11, and protests in Iran continue to expand as regime forces killed hundreds over the weekend. Videos have surfaced of families in Iran searching open-air morgues for relatives, as hospitals in Tehran are overwhelmed.
That begs the question: Where is Donald Trump?
Since his first warning at the beginning of the protests, Trump has repeated his threat twice: Don’t harm the peaceful protesters, or America will act. Now, hundreds are dead, and the free world—and more importantly, the Iranian people—are waiting for the regime to face consequences.
In Israel, the assessment is that consequences aren’t far away.
Incidentally, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said at a press conference that he believes it would be better to keep the threat ambiguous, since an American move here—unlike an attack on nuclear facilities—wouldn’t accomplish a discreet objective.
I’m not sure I agree.
In the past, Israel had far-reaching plans—there were even planes on their way to Tehran to carry them out in response to a missile launched in the hours after the cease-fire in June. Trump swore on video and stopped the strike. Now those IRGC barracks and government sites are ripe for an American show of force.
Trump seems eager to take the opportunity. If we look across the globe, there’s one thing Trump is allergic to: making a threat and having the other side ignore it. You might remember a video clip posted in August in which Nicolás Maduro taunted Trump: “You won’t succeed. Come and get me. Come and get me.”
Now, Maduro is being escorted in and out of court in New York, wearing an ill-fitting sweater and beanie.
Ayatollah Khamenei, perahps foolishly, chose to join Maduro, warning Trump and other “foreign forces” in a speech on Sunday that the Islamic Republic will “not back down in the face of saboteurs.”
It might be time to find another sweater.
But there is also an example closer to home. Trump is currently telling Israel to attack Hezbollah. Why? Because he set a deadline for dismantling the group—a deadline that hasn’t been met. And Trump simply can’t tolerate the idea of an American threat being ignored without consequences.
Now take the small amount of pressure to do something in Lebanon and multiply it by the billions of eyes watching the ayatollahs blatantly ignore his threat.
From Trump’s perspective, the test is clear—and he intends to act.
To see what I said about this last night on Channel 12 check out the video below:
Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with police officials in Israel’s south last Wednesday. (@netanyahu/X)
Benjamin Netanyahu is looking to “taper off” U.S. military aid to Israel. This comes as the current memorandum of understanding on U.S. assistance is set to expire this year, with renewal talks already underway in the Trump administration.
But first, a bit of context.
Contrary to popular belief about Israel’s puppet-like relationship with the U.S., the aid memorandum is only about 30 years old. When it was first introduced, its goal was to give Israel long-term stability for defense planning by locking in predictable levels of U.S. military support. The first MOU also marked a major shift away from direct economic aid and toward military assistance.
Each MOU lasts 10 years. The first renewal came under George W. Bush, the second under Barack Obama—both expanding the amount of aid by billions. Now, as the third renewal approaches, Netanyahu is looking to do the opposite.
At first glance, it might sound like a falling out. But in practice, this isn’t about cutting ties—it’s about restructuring the relationship.
The driving force here isn’t an Israeli realignment so much as an American one. The Trump administration’s foreign policy has tilted toward a more isolationist approach, and the diplomatic and PR costs of maintaining large-scale foreign aid have begun to outweigh the benefits for Jerusalem.
Not to mention, it’s entirely possible that a less friendly administration in 2028 could leave the IDF scrambling for supplies in a future war scenario.
This move isn’t unexpected. We heard echoes of this when 2,000-pound U.S. bombs became the subject of a dispute over whether they were intentionally or unintentionally delayed in 2024, and again almost explicitly during Bibi’s “Super-Sparta” speech in September 2025.
The shortages during the war, the shift in American public opinion, and the friction with the Biden administration all made one thing clear: the relationship could not continue as it was.
Even so, Israel is expected to continue receiving aid under the new arrangement—but with one key clause: a 10-year commitment to end U.S. assistance entirely.
Don’t be fooled. While this is a signal of realignment, it’s also a 10 year aid gurentee dressed as a disengament.
Ten years is a long horizon—enough time for Israel to adapt and gradually wean itself off American support. In some ways, it echoes what happened in the 1990s, when civilian aid was phased out during Netanyahu’s first term.
But this time, the change is less Israel’s choice and more a product of shifting global circumstances.
Still, a new Israel–U.S. understanding—one built on cooperation rather than dependence—is a relationship from which Israel has much to gain, and even more to offer.
The Kfir Brigade operating on the Yellow Line in December. (IDF)
Israel is planning a new operation in Gaza to begin in March, according to The Times of Israel’s Jacob Magid. This is isn’t a return to all-out war, according to Maggid, but rather a limited offensive aimed at expanding the Yellow Line to include Gaza City—Hamas’s headquarters.
You might remember Gaza City. The IDF was on the verge of capturing it when Hamas agreed to the ceasfire. Well it seems to be the first target of Israel’s new stategy: take bites out of Hamas territory until they are disarmed or destroyed.
That is certainly one option, but a few things are worth noting before a new offensive.
Since the cease-fire, Hamas has focused on rebuilding the military capabilities lost during the war—its tunnels, its weapons, and its depleted manpower. According to some estimates, the group now stands at around 60,000 rifles and 20,000 fighters, with an unknown number of tunnels.
The vast majority of those fighters are young and inexperienced, drawn to the organization less by ideology than by income.
But exploiting unarmed civilians for a wage is one thing—facing seasoned IDF soldiers for $130 a month is another.
But where is Hamas getting the money?
Aid, of course. Hamas isn’t picking up the garbage, paving roads, or paying for schools—but it is making sure Gazans pay their taxes. Every shipment of aid or goods entering the Strip carries an extra levy to subsidize the terror group. Hamas has achieved its dream: no governing responsibility, all of the governing benefits.
But there is another factor in Israel’s favor: no hostages.
Aside from the lost remains of Ran Gvili, Hamas has no leverage left. During the last war, Israel had to plan operations around the possible locations of hostages—not to mention the constant psychological battle and domestic pressure to reach a cease-fire. This time, no Hamas base is safe.
But above all this looms one man: Trump.
Israel’s thinking over the past few months has been simple—wait for Trump to realize that Phase Two isn’t happening. To Jerusalem, it’s been clear for some time that the international stabilization force will remain on paper. Disarmament was, and will continue to be, an Israeli project.
In the meantime, Israel was content to lean back along the Yellow Line, striking Hamas targets at its leisure while collecting intelligence for the next round.
The March date for the new operation isn’t a change in that plan—it’s simply an estimate of how long it will take for Trump to give the green light.
If you enjoy the newsletter, you can show your support through Buy Me a Coffee—it really helps keep this going. I’m also offering a special monthly briefing for a small group of premium members. I’d love to have you join us—just click below to find out more.
Now is the time for Israel to bomb Iran's ballistic missiles.
Hell of a time for the new series of “Tehran” to be on air!