Israel vs. Iran: Aftermath
Who won the latest exchange?
People take cover in a bomb shelter from incoming missiles fired from Iran in Tel Aviv, June 8, 2026. (Yehoshua Yosef/Flash90)
It’s Tuesday, June 9, and the fifth direct confrontation since 2024 between Israel and Iran has ended. As the dust settles, two words are on everyone’s mind: who won?
First, context.
To understand who won, we must first return to the culmination of two months of Trump’s policy: Iran’s attack on Israel. Sensing a distinct American reluctance to enter a war and emboldened by Trump’s continuous concessions regarding Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, Iran launched its attack under the assumption that the White House would jump into action to blunt any Israeli retaliation—and on the American side, at least, it seems Tehran was correct.
For Jerusalem, however, this brazen attack presented an existential crossroads. Israel had to decide whether to submit to the strings holding it back, trusting in the promises of its puppeteer, or cut them to assert its independence as a sovereign nation. Had the government deferred to Trump’s worldview—encapsulated by his assertion on Sunday night: “I call the shots. I call all the shots. [Netanyahu] doesn’t call the shots”—it would have signaled a dangerous return to the pre-October 6 mindset of passively waiting for external allies to guarantee its security.
More dangerously, compliance would have welded the Iranian and Lebanese arenas together. If Israel allowed Iran to cast this umbrella of deterrence, Hezbollah would become virtually untouchable—free to continue terrorizing the north. They would sit safely behind a two-front shield: the guarantee of Iranian military retaliation, and Trump’s relentless drive for a diplomatic victory at the expense of Israeli deterrence.
Choosing sovereignty, Israel struck early yesterday, destroying air defense assets and a Mahshahr petrochemical plant producing missile materials. The strike proved to the free world that Tehran is not shielded from consequences, even in an era of Trump diplomacy. However, Iran refused to back down, firing another barrage of missiles by morning. Ultimately, Donald Trump’s 12:30 p.m. tweet demanding an immediate halt to the Israeli strikes ensured that Tehran landed the final blow.
According to Army Radio’s Doron Kadosh, the Israeli defense establishment had spent the night preparing a massive afternoon follow-up aimed at broader national infrastructure to cripple the regime economically. The plan was aborted on the tarmac by Trump’s declaration of peace. Whether this second wave was purely a contingency plan in case of an Iranian response or whether it was the second part of Israel’s initial strike remains unknown.
Militarily and strategically, this brief exchange was neither a resounding victory nor a crushing defeat for either side. For Israel, it was simply the baseline response. So, back to the initial question: who won?
We still don’t know.
The silence of the ceasefire has quickly been filled by opposing narratives, kicking off what is now a staple of Middle East ceasefires: firing and testing for responses. So far, Hezbollah has been quiet regarding declarations of resistance, but its patron sought to establish a clear red line. Iran warned that any further Israeli aggression—specifically “including in southern Lebanon”—would be met with “much more severe and crushing measures.”
Israel swiftly and explicitly rejected this attempt to link Lebanese territory to Iranian deterrence. Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that the IDF will continue its operations against Hezbollah, warning that any Iranian reprisal will be met with the same “great force” demonstrated yesterday. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s president issued a call for diplomatic engagement—a declaration whose impact is as significant as the rest of the Lebanese state’s actions in this conflict: non-existent.
A picture of the IAF strike on the Lebanese city of Tyre.
Israel wasted no time testing the seriousness of Tehran’s resolve, immediately launching strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in the southern city of Tyre. Israel’s strike, met by Iranian silence, signals that Tehran was bluffing about its commitment to defend all of southern Lebanon. This shifts the immediate question to whether Hezbollah will fire at northern Israel, and if they do, whether their Beirut stronghold of Dahieh still enjoys Iranian protection from Israeli retaliation.
Ultimately, the true victor will be determined by these exact realities on the ground. If Hezbollah resumes its bombardment, Tehran’s deterrence holds. But if Israel continues systematically dismantling Hezbollah without triggering an Iranian response, Jerusalem claims a massive strategic victory. And if they simply return to trading fire? It merely confirms the region remains locked in the same protracted Israel–Iran war that erupted over a year ago and continues today.
Donald Trump holds a cabinet meeting, May 27, 2026. (White House)
If Trump’s declarations about the deal currently under discussion are accurate, and Israeli action would endanger it, his demand that Israel stand down may be reasonable. Despite the recent missile exchange, Trump excitedly claimed that a “total victory” over Iran is just two weeks away. He stated that Tehran’s negotiators are “willing to give us everything”—including a strict ban on nuclear weapons and an immediately reopened Strait of Hormuz.
Yet, Vice President J.D. Vance’s rhetoric paints a more dire picture. He opened a discussion of the deal with a reminder that the U.S. and Israel “have a lot of shared interests, but we also have some situations where our interests diverge.” He did not elaborate on what in the deal would trigger such a divergence.
If this is the deal Trump claims Bibi “won’t have any choice” but to accept, it’s trending far away from an eager “How could I possibly say no?” and toward a “deal he can’t refuse.” And yet, for his own political survival, Netanyahu may have no choice but to anger the Godfather.
Accusations that Netanyahu is turning Israel into a Trump “puppet state” have been flying thick and fast following the Trump-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon, and now again with Iran. Yes, Netanyahu got a hit in during this latest exchange. But it was hardly the terrifying assertion of Israeli force needed to restore the public’s peace of mind following the PTSD-inducing reminder of Iranian missiles.
Adding to Netanyahu’s concerns is the looming question of how relations with Trump will look in the months leading up to the elections. Following Trump’s nomination for the Israel Prize, the assumption was that the American president would arrive to receive it alongside Netanyahu, effectively launching the prime minister’s campaign with a glowing endorsement and a victory lap. But much like Israelis’ vacation plans, that victory lap seems to have been canceled by the war.
Meanwhile, the timing of the elections remains up in the air. Amid intense talk of dissolving the Knesset this week, the clock is ticking. Due to a strict 90-day preparation requirement, an immediate dissolution would land the vote in mid-September. However, if Netanyahu delays the move even slightly into next week, the high holidays will push the election to mid-to-late October. This tactical delay would mean holding a “snap” election just a week before its originally scheduled date—exactly the timeline Netanyahu is trying to engineer.
Still, time won’t sweeten a bitter outcome. A geopolitical failure in Iran and Lebanon is simply not something the Israeli electorate will swallow. If the dilemma comes down to buying time in the hope that October brings better news, or facing the polls while the dust is still settling, Netanyahu might actually be better off facing the voters sooner rather than later.
English Editor: Ari Tatarka
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President Donal Trump has reached a nadir. He always had (and most likely will have) his MAGA base of 35% of American support. You know, the shills like Laura Ingram, Hannity, et.al., but what gave him his real power was the shift in 2024 of a significant portion of the moveable electorate (including myself) who believed, despite his many flaws and the utter foolishness of the Democratic Party , he retained enough sensibilities to give him one last 4 years to govern.
What started out with a bang has suddenly turned into a debacle of Narcissism and, worse, moral confusion in his attempt to look through the lens of a business deal and think he can deal with political adversaries like Putin, Xi Jinping, the IRGC, Qatar, Edrogen, on and on, in terms of profit and loss.
I find myself putting aside my cognitive dissonance long enough to see a truth I tried hard to avoid. Like nearly everything in his life in business, he uses people who latch onto him like a railroad car to an engine going to the same destination. Until, you have served his purpose, decouples you in the desert while he goes his merry way to nowhere but his own grandiosity. What fools these mortals be.
Case in point, Israel, basically his only ally left in the world, doing the dirty work in eliminating or least severely weakening the Iranian threat to the world. He sees an opening to sweep in at much lower risk to “rescue” the world of this terrible threat to civilization to grab a Nobel Peace Prize for a bargain. Oh oh, didn’t think this through that our enemy gets a vote and he tries to bale leaving, you know, Netanyahu and Israel, who follows Zelensky and Ukraine, in his wake.
World politics is a bitch, and you are a whore, Mr. President.