No Country for Moderate Men

Also, a peek inside ultra-Orthodox society, Herzog delays the pardon, and more.

Apr 30, 2026

A U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer enforces the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. (CENTCOM/X)

It’s Thursday, April 30, and Iran is desperately trying to slip the American noose in every way but negotiation. The Iranian military-affiliated Defa Press published a list of options to break the crippling U.S. naval blockade on its ports. The proposals? Everything from outright state-sponsored piracy—seizing U.S.- and Israeli-linked commercial ships—to leaning heavily on sanctioned trade with Russia and other neighbors across the unblockaded Caspian Sea.

It seems to be the latter. Iran’s delegation informed Pakistani mediators that they must consult Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei before responding with an updated proposal. According to several senior Iranian sources, only one man has direct access to the definitely-still-alive-Supreme Leader: IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi.

It just so happens that Mojtaba and Vahidi are in complete lockstep. The regime has consequently adopted Vahidi’s hardline position on negotiations—namely, that there will be no discussion of the nuclear issue until the United States lifts the naval blockade. Mainstream Iranian politicians are consolidating around the position either out of fear or genuine support for his strategy.

What about the “moderates”?

Well, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf recently published an audio message reiterating his undying support for the Supreme Leader. Ghalibaf called for “unity” in the trying times to come; a signal that he’s acquiesced to the hardliners and doesn’t expect a diplomatic breakthrough anytime soon. Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian, who dared to suggest that negotiations should prioritize Iran’s economy, has been expelled from the centers of actual power.

It’s not that the regime is ignoring the economy; Tehran is bracing for imminent, widespread unrest born of economic desperation. Reports suggest that the Supreme National Security Council met to devise preventative security measures, which I imagine is regime-speak for planning the next massacres. The real wildcard now is how an actually “locked and loaded” Donald Trump reacts if the regime starts gunning down protesters in the streets.

My take: Let Vahidi hunt for as many pirate routes and Caspian detours as his heart desires. Reorganizing all of a country’s logistics is a nightmare for a healthy economy, and almost impossible for one much of whose critical infrastructure is already smoking rubble. Ultimately, time is on Trump’s side.

The War Powers Act deadline is fast approaching, meaning the administration will soon need Congress to authorize the continuation of the war. Fortunately for Trump, doubling down on radical, intransigent terrorism is not an effective way to convince the House to cut you some slack.

Ultra-Orthodox Jewish men block a road and clash with police at the entrance to Jerusalem during a protest against the jailing of seminary students who failed to comply with an army recruitment order. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

As we head into an election more concerned with the threat of the ultra-Orthodox Bnei Brak than the threat from Tehran, it is worth taking a closer look at the Haredi community. Since I am not ultra-Orthodox, we might be better served by the perspective of Dr. Eliezer Hayun—a researcher at the Jerusalem Center specializing in Haredi society—and his account in Yediot Ahronot of his 26 years living in Israel’s poorest city, the ultra-Orthodox Modi’in Illit.

Of the city’s roughly 100,000 residents, a staggering 60 percent are children. It simultaneously ranks as the poorest city in Israel and the one with the highest life expectancy.

According to Hayun’s account, at the helm of this metropolis is Yaakov Gutterman, who has served as mayor for over a quarter of a century, taking office in 2000. While veteran mayors are not uncommon in Israel, Gutterman’s political reality is entirely unique: his constituents are completely apathetic toward his electoral standing. Every five years, his next term is effortlessly secured through a brief meeting with the influential Rabbinic Torah court, deterring any potential rivals from even bothering to run. Because of this unconventional process, his actual administrative competence remains a mystery. He could be a brilliant leader or an absolute disaster—but ultimately, no one really knows, and nobody seems to care.

As Hayun points out, the city has only a single entrance. Nearly 100,000 residents are forced through one massive bottleneck. If a disaster were to strike and block this sole access point, the trapped population would be left entirely at the mercy of heaven. It’s tempting to lay the blame for this hazard squarely on the mayor. Yet, the complete lack of information, the public’s indifference and the total absence of political opposition make it impossible to demand transparency. Consequently—and rather frustratingly, Hayun argues—pinning the blame on him without the facts would simply be unfair.

Hayun argues that the status quo is maintained by three fundamental factors: reliable garbage collection, significant municipal tax discounts for households of full-time Torah learners and a complete disregard for rampant illegal construction.

A standard residential building, initially approved for 20 apartments, might see the addition of 20 extra housing units, three tunnels and a mikveh (ritual bath) constructed by a Hasidic resident on the ground floor. This massive wave of unregulated construction leads to endless friction between neighbors. Consequently, the Rabbinical courts—the only courts residents use, completely avoiding the civil system—are drowning in litigation.

In the ultra-Orthodox street, the status of a mayor—much like that of Haredi Knesset members—is notoriously low, if not outright despised. Hayun points out that the ultimate role model is the “Gadol HaDor” (the greatest rabbi of the generation). Modi’in Illit is no exception: the Rabbinic leadership wields absolute power. The Lithuanian Rabbinic establishment maintains a tight grip on the city, leaving zero room for independent political figures, schools or even businesses to thrive if they don’t toe the party line.

Hayun explains that this monopoly allows systemic issues to go unchallenged. For instance, the blatant exclusion of Mizrahim (Jews of Middle Eastern origin) from elite Lithuanian schools is met with deafening silence from senior religious figures. He further highlights that even the local press is neutered; while “kashrut” supervisors claim to only filter out immodest content, the reality is that no local paper has ever published a single dissenting word against the city’s leadership.

Is this absolute Da’at Torah (Torah-guided) governance a bad thing? Hayun claims it depends on who you ask. A prominent Jerusalem rabbi once joyfully described Modi’in Illit to him as an ideal, perfectly managed society. However, Hayun cautions that this unchecked Rabbinic power has dark consequences: a tendency to handle sexual abusers internally, the enforcement of non-mandatory religious strictures, rampant ethnic segregation in schools and the total erasure of pluralism.

But how does this system manage to survive?

Hayun conducted a study alongside former Civil Service Commissioner Ehud Prawer to discover what allows the ultra-Orthodox economy to function. They discovered that its resilience relies heavily on deeply ingrained social contracts. One of the most fascinating is the community’s universal willingness to sacrifice personal space for the collective good, allowing communal initiatives to seamlessly take over shared or private areas without the need for formal permission.

Because of this, you’ll find bustling discount markets operating out of residential parking lots, private living rooms, makeshift halls and shared courtyards. Hayun frames the entire society as a single living organism, instinctively volunteering to sustain itself. As he recounts, on his way out of the city, he found his moving truck blocked by an impromptu charity market. Hundreds of people, lining up to get a food basket for a nominal price or perhaps even for free, blocked all entry to the area and created a severe traffic jam.

“A city council member, sweating, energetic, and enveloped in a fervor of holiness, heard my screams and hurried over. ‘Is there a problem?’ he asked.

‘Absolutely,’ I replied furiously, ‘no one asked my permission to use the building’s parking lot.’

‘It’s okay,’ he replied, ‘I volunteered you.’

I looked at him. He wasn’t being cynical. He didn’t even smile.

‘But it’s illegal,’ I whispered in frustration and helplessness.

‘Complain to the municipality,’ the senior city council member replied cheerfully, and continued with his holy work.”

Weeks and months passed, and Hayun ultimately realized the council member was right. The council member had sincerely volunteered him as an important cell making up the ultra-Orthodox social organism that allows the poorest city in Israel to continue to survive.

Supreme Court Justice Isaac Amit with President Isaac Herzog at the Israel Prize ceremony in Jerusalem, on Israel's 78th Independence Day. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

From Netanyahu’s perspective, the most important news this week wasn’t the opposition’s unification, but Israel’s president’s announcement—via The New York Times—regarding the postponement of a pardon.

There was a slight misunderstanding. In English, the Hebrew word “lidchot” can mean both postpone and reject. President Herzog, not a man to rush into decisive rulings, meant the former.

The significant window for Herzog to make a decision will open after the elections, aiming for a comprehensive deal. A former justice minister once said it’s very hard to appoint one judge to the Supreme Court, but four is easier. Paradoxically, the more that is on the table, the easier it is to satisfy the parties. Herzog is operating similarly. He assumes reaching a compromise on the trial between the attorney general (the de facto head of the opposition) and Netanyahu will be nearly impossible. But if forming a government and a legal compromise are tossed into the same pot, a viable solution might just emerge.

The risks of waiting are great for all sides. First and foremost, for the president. While Trump hasn’t insulted him for about two weeks (he’s been a bit busy), it’s unclear if he’ll continue to settle for mere text messages. And for Netanyahu, a decision now would certainly have been preferable. In a few months, he could be stripped of all the assets that separate him from an ordinary defendant. After all, his pardon request relies on his need to concentrate on fateful security and diplomatic matters as prime minister. What happens if he becomes the leader of the opposition?

Some are trying to convince Herzog to take his time regardless. If Netanyahu is elected, it will be easier for him to receive a pardon. If he isn’t, he will leave politics. Perhaps, but that’s exactly what everyone thought in 2021 when he lost to Bennett. Yet here we are, and the end of the trial is still not in sight.

Most importantly, according to most polls, the president is about to face another crash test. If no candidate receives 61 substantial mandates (a mandate from a faction like the anti-Zionist Arab party Hadash-Ta’al that won’t join a coalition doesn’t count), he will have to make a decisive ruling under suboptimal conditions—just like with the pardon. Facing this impending chaos, one has to wonder: does Herzog ever catch himself thinking it wouldn’t have been so bad if Miriam Peretz had beaten him for the presidency?

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have declared a joint list for Israel’s forthcoming elections in October. What are they trying to accomplish? Does this strengthen the anti-Netanyahu bloc or weaken it?

I discuss all of this with the help of Dan Senor and Nadav Eyal on the most recent episode of Call Me Back.

To listen to the episode click here.

English Editor: Ari Tatarka

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