It’s Noon in Israel: Operation Irani Freedom?
Also, the United Nations of Trump convenes for the first time, and Tucker's Israeli adventure.
F/A-18 Super Hornets land on the deck of USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea. (@CENTCOM/X)
It’s Thursday, February 19, and the American buildup in the Middle East is the largest it has been since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Is the U.S. on the verge of total war?
Let’s take it down a few notches.
There are serious indications that a strike is coming. Senator Lindsey Graham said today that the decision to attack has “already been made.” As for when, we still don’t know.
But it’s always entertaining to watch headlines outrun developments. In the space of the last week we’ve seen stories racing toward a negotiated deal, only to pivot 180 degrees and sprint toward declarations of imminent attack. But the buildup in the Middle East reveals more about the scale than the schedule.
Despite the escalation with Iran seemingly flowing from the abduction of Maduro in January, the next strike will not be another small-scale, pinpoint operation. More than a hundred fighter aircraft are already in the region—including, but not limited to, forty-eight F-16s, twelve F-22s, eighteen F-35s, six E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft, and roughly forty refueling planes.
And that’s before counting the hundreds of military cargo flights delivering equipment, the second carrier strike group en route, and the strategic bombers capable of flying in from virtually any U.S. base around the world.
As Senator Graham said “all these ships aren’t coming here just because the weather is nice this time of year.” All signs point to a campaign designed to systematically cripple the regime over the course of days—or even weeks.
One recent development is the increased likelihood of IDF involvement. What initially looked like a one-man show with Israeli assistance now appears to include Israel on stage. Rather than splitting the target bank equally, it’s possible the two actors will specialize—Israel focusing on the ballistic missile program, while the U.S. targets government and military infrastructure.
So are the negotiations a farce?
Not exactly. Trump is exploring his options. But Iran seems to believe it can keep the U.S. in negotiation purgatory—so Trump is moving toward a kinetic resolution.
There is a certain irony in the U.S. standing on the brink of an “Irani Freedom”–scale operation under a president who once called the Iraq War a “big, fat mistake.” Not that the two operations are equally justified. No investigation will be needed this time to find Iran’s weapons of mass destruction.
Donald Trump participating in the Board of Peace charter announcement and signing ceremony in January. (whitehouse.gov)
The United Nations of Trump—also known as the Board of Peace—convenes for the first time this evening. The ambitions are lofty. But before it takes the world stage, it must succeed at its first task: demilitarizing Hamas.
Technically, it’s a board, but what ever resolution they vote on will be Trump’s decision. As chairman, he holds effective veto power over its decisions and can construct or dismantle sections of the organization at will. But more fundamentally, the members didn’t sign up for another General Assembly; they are there to gain presidential favor. Contradicting him would defeat the purpose of their membership. For all intents and purposes, this is a council of one.
So what will the chairman decide?
There are two components: the timeline and the method.
The former is difficult to predict with any precision, especially with an Iran strike potentially on the calendar. Reports in January suggested the IDF was preparing for another Gaza operation in March. That’s not gospel, but it offers a rough benchmark. Trump may give Hamas something like a month—assuming other conflicts don’t interfere.
That leads to the second component: method. Despite the International Stabilisation Force finally taking a few steps off paper, the responsibility for dismantling Hamas remains with the IDF.
Yesterday, Kosovo and Kazakhstan joined Indonesia, Morocco, Greece, and Albania in the force, but what they will be stabilizing is not yet settled. The chances we hear Kazakhstani battle cries beyond the yellow line are slim to none. What is more likely is a policing role within areas the IDF controls, with Jared Kushner’s planned “New Rafah” a likely candidate.
It’s inauspicious to say this right before their first meeting, but I’m not optimistic about the Board of Peace’s life expectancy. But who knows—if Gaza is rid of Hamas, and Trump sees a fitting successor for chairman in the new President, the board may just outlive the next election.
Tucker Carlson at Ben Gurion Airport during his visit to Israel. (@TuckerCarlson/X)
There were two revelations during Tucker’s brief Israel visit. First, he’s one of those people who boasts about visiting a country when he only sees the airport. Second, he’s the dramatic type who calls routine questioning at passport control “detention.”
Carlson landed at Israel’s airport yesterday—just long enough to interview U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, concoct a fresh lie, and make it to his flight back to Europe a few hours later. According to a claim already denied by the U.S. Embassy, Carlson was taken into custody during his brief visit.
Now, if you’ve visited Israel, you know you’ll be approached by a security official who, in the heaviest Israeli accent imaginable, will ask a series of seemingly random and occasionally inane questions. For Jewish visitors, it’s an iconic and highly anticipated part of the experience—a rapid-fire trivia round on Jewish practice.
I doubt Tucker could recite the song Jews sing on Friday night, name his local synagogue, or say the blessing recited in the morning. But I’m disappointed. After all of his grand theories, the worst he could come up with was that the hummus eaters asked him a few questions.
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