Operation Roaring Lion Day 14: Operation Roaring Honey Badger
Also, Herzog’s pardon dilemma, Israelis review bomb shelters, and more.
On the last Friday of Ramadan, supporters of the Iranian regime mark Iranian Al Quds (Jerusalem) Day, an annual event meant to rally the “axis of resistance” around the Palestinian issue. This footage from this year’s celebrations shows smoke from Israeli strikes rising in the background. (AbuAliExpress)
It’s Friday, March 13, and the fourteenth day of Operation Roaring Lion. Here are the latest developments while you were asleep:
Ali Larijani, Iran’s most senior remaining security official, marched through the streets of Tehran today as part of the regime’s Al-Quds Day celebrations. This was less an act of bravery than an act of faith in the IDF. Despite being surrounded by a crowd of explicit supporters of the regime, Larijani is confident that—unlike his own country—Israel will not strike civilians.
After four days of no contact, we may finally have gotten a sign of life from the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. The Supreme leader issued a lengthy written message that was then read aloud on state television. In it, he outlined his views on the trajectory of the war, praised Iran’s armed forces, and demanded reparations from the United States and Israel. The most notable thing about the statement, is the fact that it was a statement. Instead of confirming with a picture, video, or even a voice note, he chose the most suspicious option.
Despite Iran’s recent threats to target Israel’s economic infrastructure, data from Israel’s Tax Authority shows that property damage so far amounts to less than one-tenth of what it was during Operation Rising Lion. Even though Operation Roaring Lion has already surpassed the previous campaign in length, the steady decline in missile launches makes it unlikely that Iran will close the gap. Even going all out, Iran is not the same force it was even eight months ago.
Last night U.S. Central Command announced that a KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq in an apparent accident involving another tanker. Six service members are believed to have been on board. Four have been confirmed dead so far, while rescue efforts continue.
The Iranian missile threat remains. 38 people were wounded early this morning when an Iranian missile struck homes in the northern Arab village of Zarzir near Nazareth, causing heavy damage to several buildings and setting vehicles on fire. Seventeen children were injured, though all are reported to be in light condition.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Israel’s attacks on the Iranian repression apparatus have relied on intelligence received from ordinary Iranian citizens about the locations of Basij positions. Citizens pass on information about targets, which are then struck by Israeli drones. If this continues into the next phase of the war, it goes without saying that a protest movement with air support is far more likely to succeed.
Now, on to the details.
An Israeli fighter pilot walking across a hangar carrying his gear toward an F-35. (IDF)
“This is how war works,” says a senior security official:
“With one hand we grip the regime’s throat with force. With the other hand we shake it unexpectedly—again and again and again—until its neck snaps.”
The first hand is the orderly military effort: first the air-defense systems, then the ballistic missiles, then the remnants of the nuclear project, and then the regime’s repression headquarters.
The second hand are the surprises Israel had planned. As of yesterday, those surprises have been delayed. The Mossad and the IDF disagree about who is responsible. There has never been great love between the two organizations, ever since the days of Rising Lion, and now there is a battle over credit for success.
The assessment in Israel is that even the military chokehold itself, if it continues as planned, will cause irreversible damage to the regime.
“It is fascinating to see a boutique and an industrial factory working together,” they say in Israel. Our Air Force meticulously plans attacks that are enormous by Israeli standards, yet still always rely on ingenuity—on squeezing 150 percent of the potential from the equipment and munitions. The Americans arrive and simply grind the targets into dust with disproportionate firepower. They have never heard of munitions economy.
“War is not a choose-your-own-adventure program,” Netanyahu said this week. Only in state commissions of inquiry can you demand a perfectly detailed plan in advance that unfolds exactly as designed.
Planning existed, of course. The prime minister detests PowerPoint presentations almost as much as he detests Khamenei, and he has been waging war against them in meetings for years, with little success in eliminating the threat. And yet, when he met Trump at the White House exactly a month ago, he arrived with a presentation—seven slides laying out the full principles of the joint war.
“How do you endure it?” Trump asked, referring to two and a half years of war with another round still ahead.
“You are a prehistoric tiger, with sharp teeth,” he said. “But we are the honey badger—a small animal, tough, but wild and relentless.”
The wounded Iranian beast’s way of fighting the badger and the tiger is surprisingly similar to Hamas’s. Sinwar relied on exploiting Israeli society’s sensitivity to hostages and the Western world’s sensitivity to civilian casualties. The Revolutionary Guards are relying on Western sensitivity to rising energy prices. They are counting on dragging out the clock.
In Israel, the new rule is to focus on achieving the objectives, not the calendar: not dates but processes.
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom
To read on my website click here
Donald Trump, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Benjamin Netanyahu arrive for a special plenum session in October 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Some people are experts at delaying gratification. One gets the impression that Trump is not among them.
He reportedly scolded President Herzog for delaying, in his view, too long in granting Netanyahu a pardon.
The coming months may give him an opportunity to exercise that muscle. For the president, Netanyahu’s trial—dramatic as it is—is merely a symptom of a deeper problem.
His years as president have turned him into a traffic cop at the intersection between the judicial system and the right-wing camp. That intersection is now blocked after a massive pile-up.
Netanyahu’s trial introduced a criminal interpretation of bribery for actions that had previously been considered part of politics or its margins (so far, according to the judges’ comments, not with great success). In response, the right rallied around judicial reform, interpreting the judiciary as a political center that must be defeated.
Then came the disaster of October 7 and the need to establish a commission of inquiry—along with the argument over whether Supreme Court justices should appoint investigators of politicians.
To clear the intersection, a comprehensive deal will be needed.
If Herzog does not grant a full pardon, the trial will continue—and the political brawl will continue. If he does grant one, the coalition will continue the judicial reform and the opposition will continue believing justice was not done.
The problem is obvious: how can such a package deal be reached on the eve of elections?
Suppose agreement is reached on judicial legislation by consensus. Who exactly will honor it? Smotrich, Ben-Gvir, and parts of Likud could say: elect us, and after the election we will renew all efforts to dismiss the attorney general and reshape the Supreme Court.
In legal language: how can two parties to a contract bind a third party?
Therefore it seems the decisive moment in the pardon discussions will arrive only after the elections, during coalition negotiations.
If, as most polls suggest, neither bloc has a majority, it is not unreasonable to imagine that the President’s Residence will host two parallel marathons: consultations on forming a government—and negotiations on a comprehensive deal.
The designated prime minister and his prospective partner from the opposing camp, together with the attorney general and the president, could discuss a framework: ending the trial, establishing a state commission of inquiry with an agreed composition, and passing a Basic Law on legislation including consensual reforms to the judicial system.
The High Court would not be a problem in such a case. This week the former attorney general Yitzhak Zamir published his book:
“Was the pardon granted to the Shin Bet personnel [in the Bus 300 affair] the right and proper act? … I wrote an opinion to President Chaim Herzog stating that only criminals could be pardoned, not those still presumed innocent and not yet convicted. It turns out that legally I was mistaken—in the Shin Bet affair the Supreme Court ruled that the president may pardon them even if no indictment has yet been filed.”
One less problem.
This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom
To read on my website click here
So far Israelis have demonstrated an unparalleled ability to adapt. In just two weeks of war there has been a new dating app for bomb shelters, countless underground parties, and even an algorithm predicting whether you can finish a shower before the next rocket barrage.
But spending so much time in shelters raises an obvious question: when the siren sounds, which bunker should you run to?
Thankfully, Israelis have taken to Google Reviews to let us know.
Shabbat Shalom!
We will be back on Sunday.
English Editor: Ari Tatarka
If you enjoy the newsletter, you can show your support by becoming a paid subscriber—it really helps keep this going. I’m also offering a special monthly briefing for a small group of premium members. I’d love to have you join us—just click below to find out more.
Thanks for reading It’s Noon in Israel! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
Very good interview on Jewish Federation North America yesterday. I’ve been a subscriber for a while. I hope you got many new ones. You deserve it! Yours is one of the few I open six days a week
It’s inexcusable that Israel didn’t take out Larijani. Nobody marching with him is a “civilian.” It’s the Hamas model - put terrorists in Adidas track suits and claim they are civilians when killed.