Operation Roaring Lion Day 37: Six Horses and a Leftist Enter a Bomb Shelter
Also, Trump’s ultimatum expires tomorrow, the success in Iran’s asymmetrical war, and more.
The American aircraft that were destroyed during Saturday’s rescue operation.
It’s Sunday, April 5, and the thirty-seventh day of Operation Roaring Lion. The global price of oil has reached $109, up seven percent since Friday. Here are the latest developments while you were asleep:
Both crew members of the F-15 shot down over Iran on Friday have been rescued. President Donald Trump called the rescue of the second airman on Saturday night one of the “most daring” operations in U.S. military history, involving dozens of aircraft and hundreds of special forces troops. U.S. forces also destroyed at least one transport aircraft on the ground to prevent it from falling into Iranian hands after it became stranded at a remote site during the mission. They struck Iranian convoys heading toward the search area, and a firefight broke out between U.S. rescuers and Iranian search parties.
The Telegraph reports that five Chinese shipments of sodium perchlorate—a key ingredient in solid missile fuel—have arrived in Iran. China has previously supplied the same chemical to support Iran’s ballistic missile program. The deliveries come even as U.S.-Israeli strikes have specifically targeted Iran’s missile production infrastructure, including fuel and propellant facilities.
U.S.-Israeli forces struck the border crossing between Iran and Iraq for at least the second time since the war began, prompting Iraq to close the crossing. The crossing served as a transit point for at least 1,000 Iraqi proxy fighters now deployed to Basij bases inside Iran—a mobilization analysts believe is partly aimed at suppressing potential domestic unrest.
Now, on to the details.
Donald Trump delivers remarks at the F11 PRIORITY Summit last week. (White House)
Tomorrow, Iran’s extension on Donald Trump’s ultimatum will expire. Last night, Trump reiterated his threat initially made in March: within the next 48 hours, make a deal, open the Strait of Hormuz—or “all hell will rain down” on Iran. Trump’s version of hell, in this case, would look a lot like the real thing: flammable, as Iran’s energy infrastructure is likely in his crosshairs.
In Israel, the assessment is that the regime will allow the ultimatum to expire. So far, few positive signals have come out of Islamabad, where negotiations are supposed to take place. None have even reached the level of vague optimism of “good progress” that came out of the Geneva talks preceding the war. A senior official told Pakistan’s Dawn on Friday that “Tehran has so far not conveyed its readiness to take part in the dialogue.” Reports from The Wall Street Journal tell a similar story: Iran is “unwilling to meet U.S. officials in Islamabad in the coming days and considers U.S. demands unacceptable.”
On March 26, Trump extended Iran’s nuclear negotiation deadline to 10 days, partly because Tehran sent 10 Pakistani-flagged oil tankers as a goodwill gesture. Another delaying gesture is possible—but unlikely.
Israel is recommending a strong, decisive final strike, eliminating the entirety of their energy industry, followed by a return to routine strikes until the last quarter of April. Trump’s promise to “finish the job” on Wednesday night seems to indicate that he is heading in that direction.
There are some who believe the deadline will pass quietly, with Trump restrained by the threat of disturbing global oil markets. It seems almost unnecessary to restate after he withdrew from the JCPOA and launched Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury—but the fact remains: don’t underestimate Donald Trump.
Police clash with Israelis during a protest against the current Israeli government and the ongoing war with Iran, at haBima Square in Tel Aviv last night. (Flash90)
Six police horses and more than 600 anti-war protesters walk into a bomb shelter. This isn’t the setup to a joke—it’s a description of last night in Tel Aviv.
It certainly sounds like a joke. After all, why were there more than 600 protesters on the street when the Home Front Command has restricted all gatherings to 50?
Well, a collection of left-wing groups wanted to protest the war—and the government—so clearly this was a matter of life and death. That was the reason the Israeli Supreme Court cited when it convened for an emergency hearing on Friday night to address the protesters’ petition.
The protesters requested permission for 1,000 participants. The Home Front Command responded that 150 would be manageable. The president of the court, Yitzchak Amit, chose to split the difference—and then lean a bit further toward the protesters—landing on a final number of 600. Without getting into the broader issue of judicial reform, I didn’t realize the court had the power to make 450 people immune to missiles.
The protesters, for their part, tested the court’s protective powers by ignoring the cap it had imposed. While police were dispersing the protest, something incredibly predictable occurred: rockets were fired at Tel Aviv.
Which brings us back to the setup: six police horses and more than 600 anti-war protesters walk into a bomb shelter. Thankfully, the punchline was neither explosive nor ironic.
But it easily could have been.
(Ark Media)
“It wasn’t meant to be an asymmetrical war.” If anything, it was meant to be the opposite. Iran is a country with ten times the population of Israel, thousands of ballistic missiles, powerful proxies, and a program edging toward nuclear capability.
It is only thanks to the precise and strategic moves by the U.S. and Israel that Iran’s nuclear material is now buried deep beneath Isfahan. In 37 days of conflict, U.S. losses amount to a handful of aircraft and 13 tragic deaths, while much of Iran’s military infrastructure lies in ruins. Meanwhile, millions of Iranians likely remain poised to return to the streets.
Compared to the Gulf War—as Bret Stephens did so well in The New York Times—these losses are, in strategic terms, worth celebrating.
I discuss this and more with Nadav Eyal and Dan Senor on the most recent episode of Call Me Back.
English Editor: Ari Tatarka
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The phrase ‘eliminating the entirety of their energy industry’ seems to be doing a lot of work. Dose it mean an attack on Kharg Island, an attack on the oil fields and pipelines? Or does it venture into Putin like was crimes and include the destruction of Irans power grid?
I agree that there seems to be no underestimating Nuttyahoo and nuttier trump as they jointly wage the War To Save Bibis election prospects (now into the sixth week of what Trump originally described as a 2-4 week Special Military Operation). God only knows what the rest of the world will have to do to clean up the results of this mess.
Trying to find the sunny side hasbara. Really no good news for you Zios, your savior being the orange pedophile President blackmailed into humiliating compliance with the worst people on earth (cue mirror). Not promising at all but happy Easter to you!