It’s Noon in Israel: "The Regime Is Finished"

Also, what role will Israel play in the U.S. strike on Iran and how one “annoying” child uncovered a national treasure.

Iranian women lighting cigarettes by burning the supreme leader’s photos in Canada. (@MilitanTosh/X)

It’s Monday, January 12, and that’s right—according to a senior Israeli intelligence source, the Iranian regime is finished. “It will take however long it takes,” he said, “but it will not return to what it was.”

My source must remain anonymous, but this official has been part of Israel’s years-long effort to counter and destabilize the regime. So if he says it’s over—I’m inclined to believe him.

According to him, the camel’s back has finally broken. Years of economic strain, combined with public outrage, a forthcoming American strike, and Iran’s sheer failure as a functioning state mean that even if the government manages to suppress the protests, the Islamic Republic as we know it is finished.

Perhaps it was the economy—riddled with cronyism that allowed the IRGC to control more than 30 percent of national wealth. Maybe it was the water crisis that grew so severe officials reportedly considered evacuating the capital. Or maybe it’s the simple fact that Iranians, in every country they live except Iran, seem to thrive.

Whatever the final straw was, the reality remains the same: the camel isn’t going to stand back up.

Now, that doesn’t mean everyone will hold hands and sing the Persian translation of Kumbaya. It’s entirely possible that a senior commander in the IRGC or the regular army steps in, and Iran morphs into a nationalist dictatorship—or a watered-down Islamic government.

But one way or another, change is coming.

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U.S. air exercises with a B-52 Stratofortress in December (CETCOM)

So the collapse is coming—but not before a few American B-2s and F-35s remind Tehran of that classic post-9/11 lesson: don’t mess with the U.S. But that begs the question: What will Israel’s role be in the American strike?

A heavy cloud of silence surrounds the Israeli leadership, which prefers not to comment on the issue. It’s very reminiscent of the period before Operation Rising Lion—months of officials telling journalists to switch to WhatsApp, then to Signal, and eventually saying, “Forget it, I don’t want to talk about it.”

One thing is certain: Israel will not learn about the strike from the news.

This is actually American policy coming full circle.

Jimmy Carter, one of the worst presidents in U.S. history, hastened the shah’s downfall in the 1970s when he demanded that no violence be used against the protesters. Everything, of course, was framed around human rights—and the result was the emergence of the regime that today violates more human rights in more places than almost any country in the world.

Donald Trump wants to fix this, and in my opinion he intends to act.

The question now is: How?

When Trump stopped the planes en route to Tehran, in retaliation for the deadly attack on Be’er Sheva after the cease-fire, the aim was to strike numerous high-quality regime targets.

If Trump looks at the target bank, he may see the small island of Kharg in the Strait of Hormuz. In an area about the size of Jerusalem’s central bus station sits most of Iran’s critical oil infrastructure. Hit the export facilities and Trump paralyzes two-thirds of the Iranian economy in a single blow.

If you’re wondering why Israel didn’t cripple Iran’s oil economy in June, it wasn’t out of a lack of ability. Israel didn’t want to risk alienating the Iranian people and have them rally around the Islamic Republic’s flag. Israel also wanted to keep several major targets in reserve—an open threat of the consequences another attack would bring.

But Kharg Island doesn’t make sense for Trump. The goal of economic damage is to drive the masses into the streets. They’re already there, so why push them into hunger as well?

Trump has a few options. One is striking Iran’s ballistic missile sites. Another is hitting what remains of its nuclear program—though neither move would do much to help the protesters.

A third option would be to follow Israel’s example from the war: target the regime’s instruments of repression—the Revolutionary Guard and Basij bases. But that, too, would be largely symbolic. To truly change the reality for protesters, you’d have to hit a critical mass of the targets—not exactly Trump’s favored one-and-done shock-and-awe approach.

That leaves one leading option: pull a Maduro—cut off the head of the regime, and I do mean cut. While it would really close the Carter circle, Trump isn’t sending in helicopters for another Iranian extraction. Ayatollah Khamenei will be swapping his robes for an urn, not a baggy sweater in a New York courthouse.

These are the four options facing the regime.

Which will be chosen?

We’ll know within a few days.

To see what I said on this topic on Channel 12 last night, click the video below:

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The two amulets found in Ketef Hinnom with writing inscribed on silver. The inscriptions include blessings similar to the preistly blessing, Numbers 6:24–26. (Israel Museum/Nahum Slapak).

What is Israel’s most important artifact? In a country where every construction project has a representative from the Antiquities Authority on standby—delaying every project by years—there are a lot of candidates. But a strong contender is the Ketef Hinnom scrolls: ancient silver scrolls inscribed with the priestly blessing, the discovery of which was all thanks to a child described as “exceptionally annoying.”

It’s story time.

Dr. Gabi Barkai was running an archaeological site next to Jerusalem’s Old City with a group of children from a nature protection club. With them was one particularly annoying child. In order to “get rid of” him, the archaeologist sent him to ancient collection pits—where the bones of the dead had been transferred (“a bone dump,” as Barkai called it)—to clean the rock surfaces.

“But after some time,” Gabi recalled, “I feel someone tugging at the hem of my shirt. I turn around and see the nuisance holding two intact vessels from the First Temple period in his hands. I almost strangled him. This was improper conduct—artifacts should not be removed. He was supposed to call me in, not touch them.”
But “that child led me to the discovery of my life, and I was overcome with immense excitement.”

A few days later, at the same site, one of the most extraordinary finds ever discovered in the Land of Israel was made. These scrolls are considered the earliest archaeological discovery of a biblical text, dating to 600 B.C., the end of the First Temple period.

Dr. Barkai passed away last night, but his discovery and his life’s work contributed greatly to his field of biblical archaeology.

I think the lesson of this story is clear: get rid of annoying children more often.

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