To Assassinate or Not to Assassinate?

Also, the media double standard strikes again.

It’s Wednesday, May 20, and before we get to today’s stories, an election update. The bill to dissolve the Knesset has passed its preliminary reading with a unanimous 110-0 vote. This initiates the legislative process, with the final dissolution vote expected within one to three weeks. If passed, the Elections Committee will set the election date. While Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled a preference for October 27, the committee is expected to set an earlier date—likely September 1 or 15.

Now, onto today’s stories.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Much like the movie Groundhog Day, Washington and Jerusalem—from the think tanks to the command bunkers—are once again grappling with the exact same question they have faced before: Should Khamenei be assassinated? This time, however, it’s Mojtaba, not Ali. Other than that, almost everything is exactly the same.

In the heat of events, the fact that Israel had—for the first time in its history—killed the leader of an enemy state was overshadowed. The country had rehearsed the assassination of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 1992, but ultimately, due to an operational disaster, the mission did not materialize. It also toyed with the targeted killing of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat in 2002. Uri Dan, a confidant of then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, recounted asking him if Arafat had died naturally two years later. Sharon replied: “It’s better not to talk about it.” The United States had imposed an absolute veto on an overt assassination.

In 2026, the United States coordinated with Israel on the assassination of the leader of a country with nearly one hundred million residents, hoping to destabilize the regime’s foundations. That hope was partially fulfilled, or partially disappointed, depending on how you look at the glass. On the one hand, the undisputed, top-down control vanished. Iran sank into an internal battle, evident in attacks on the Gulf states that completely defied the political echelon’s position. The replacement son is pale, corrupt and wounded; it is doubtful whether he is leading or merely being dragged.

On the other hand, there is still a command structure; there is still someone to lean on. As long as there is an ayatollah named Khamenei, Iran maintains the facade of a functioning state. President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi do allow themselves to deviate slightly from the supreme leader’s rigid line on the nuclear issue—something they would never dare do during his father’s time—but they do not dare deviate much.

So in the war games, here is the dilemma: On one hand, Mojtaba is the last survivor, the only remaining natural heir. If he is assassinated, Iran could sink into leadership chaos that might help the more moderate wing secure an agreement. This is what Israel attempted in the Doha strike last September. It fired advanced missiles at the building housing the more recalcitrant wing of Hamas, the faction that had thwarted a hostage deal.

On the other hand, it’s not as if there are true moderates in Iran. If there is no Khamenei, no Anwar Sadat is waiting in the wings. Without him, there is the danger of securing an agreement that looks good on paper but is not fundamentally different from Barack Obama’s. Mossad Director David Barnea used to tell his American counterparts how, in the previous decade, the administration allayed his fears by arguing, “Who knows what will happen in the long term, in 2026, when the agreement begins to expire.” Well, here we are in 2026—welcome to the long term. Even if a different leadership agrees to freeze the nuclear program for 15 years, 2041 will eventually arrive just the same.

In short, a severe dilemma.

This is an excerpt from my weekly column in Israel Hayom.

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Cap: Maj. (res.) Itamar Sapir. (IDF)

Yesterday morning, a Hezbollah operative opened fire on Israeli forces from inside a church in the southern Lebanese village of Qouza. In the ensuing exchange, Itamar Sapir, a 27-year-old deputy company commander, was killed.

Sapir is the 10th IDF soldier to fall in southern Lebanon since the start of this so-called ceasefire. He leaves behind a wife and a one-year-old son.

This tragic event is the direct result of a moral asymmetry: Israel’s respect for Christian holy sites and Hezbollah’s calculated exploitation of them. The church in question had been personally visited by the IDF chief of staff and deliberately fenced off to ensure its protection during ground operations. For Hezbollah, Israel had just provided additional protection for an ideal sniper’s nest.

Following the gunfire, the IDF struck targets in the immediate vicinity to neutralize the operative, intentionally avoiding the church itself. I have no doubt what The New York Times headline would have been had the building been damaged. What I doubt is whether Itamar’s name would have made an appearance at all.

This cynical exploitation of holy sites is a deliberate Hezbollah strategy—highlighted last month when the IDF uncovered terror tunnels beneath a local church. Israel is not immune to criticism, and the recent destruction of a Jesus statue in southern Lebanon remains a black mark that demands an internal reckoning. But that reckoning is hijacked when the international press routinely ignores the other party’s militarization of the altar.

The persecution of Christians is an 80-year trend across the Middle East, yet Israel is the one constantly branded as the Grinch. Ultimately, Israelis aren’t the primary victims of this selective blind spot. The real victims are the Christians of the region, whose struggles are appropriated to fight the only Middle Eastern state where, despite the occasional incident, they enjoy full civil rights and freedom from violence.

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English Editor: Ari Tatarka

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