Why Israel’s Top Brass Thinks They’ve Already Won the War
Also, is Bennett finished? And a military glass ceiling is shattered.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir visits the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City, 2025. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
It’s Friday, June 5, and Hezbollah has officially rejected the ceasefire. Two days after Jerusalem and Beirut agreed to a conditional pause, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem dismissed the deal as a “surrender,” vowing to maintain fire on northern Israel as long as strikes in Lebanon continue. This hardline stance certainly jeopardizes the “pilot zones” intended for the Lebanese Armed Forces to deploy. However, it hasn’t shifted the calculus in Tel Aviv; for the IDF’s top brass, the book on the terror organization has already largely been closed.
On the streets, it’s easy to spot the sourness and bitterness regarding the events on the northern front, from the children running to bomb shelters, to the devastating news from the drone fields across the border, all the way to slamming the brakes on an attack in Beirut. The difficult conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t help the feeling that there is a plan, either. These feelings do not reach the upper floors of the Kirya, Israel’s Pentagon. At the top of the military, they speak of an achievement unseen in years, and of an opportunity for peace and quiet for many long years. Reconciling these two pictures is impossible, but describing them is.
The IDF’s top brass is convinced that Hezbollah is a semi-dismantled organization that has absorbed the hardest blow in its history. It had 30,000 fighters on Oct. 6, 2023; since then, 8,000 have been killed and about the same number wounded. “Even a jihadist enemy is dying for a ceasefire.”
The chief of staff, for example, said in closed discussions that he is in favor, under the following conditions: One, Hezbollah’s withdrawal beyond the Litani River. Two, the destruction of all its infrastructure, this time not by the impotent Lebanese army but by an Israeli-American mechanism. Three, an IDF presence on the Yellow Line, which includes, for example, the infamous Beaufort Castle.
In retrospect, the IDF dislikes the phrase “Hezbollah fell into a strategic ambush,” which a senior military official used on the day the organization came to Iran’s aid at the start of Operation Roaring Lion and opened fire. “Even before the war, we saw that the organization was increasingly struggling to absorb the Israeli blows; they were on the verge of responding even without Khamenei’s assassination.” The army was furious with reserve generals who went on television panels to criticize what they saw as an overly harsh Israeli response to a symbolic barrage in memory of the supreme leader. “They probably don’t understand what we saw in the first week of March,” they say there. “Hundreds of Radwan terrorists crossing the Litani. Why did they come? If there had been even one raid on a single community, we all would have had to pack our bags and resign. What were we supposed to do if not meet them on their own turf and kill them?”
Since then, Hezbollah has focused on its only success: drones. The defense establishment suggests managing expectations with the public: There will not be a single comprehensive solution for rockets, in the format of the Iron Dome. There will be many solutions that together will create a partial response. “No weapon introduced to the battlefield has ever disappeared; it only evolved. Tanks are here to stay, anti-tank missiles likewise, planes, and now drones.”
However, they emphasize, the agreement could be here within days to weeks. If they could, they would urge the residents of the northern Kiryat Shmona and Nahariya to suffer for a few more weeks and receive an agreement that will bring peace for many long years. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such a gap between the harsh public sentiment and the sweeping optimism at the top. How long? Twenty years minus two months, at the end of the Second Lebanon War. Back then, the public was right that the war was a dismal failure and Hezbollah had grown stronger; hopefully, this time the decision-makers are right.
Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party speaks during a conference at Tel Aviv University, May 12, 2026. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)
In forming the “Together” alliance with Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett attempted the electoral equivalent of predatory pricing: absorbing a temporary hit on his overall numbers to squeeze out his rivals. Ultimately, the “Together” strategy failed to corner the market. Instead of eliminating the competition, it diluted Bennett’s brand, inadvertently driving voters toward a more bespoke, “high-quality” alternative: Gadi Eisenkot.
This Channel 12 polling chart shows Naftali Bennett steadily dropping from 28 to 21, while Gadi Eisenkot rises from 14 to 19.
According to a Channel 12 poll released yesterday, the gap between Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot has collapsed from 11 points to just 2 in the four short weeks since the formation of the “Together” alliance. Even more strikingly, in a head-to-head matchup against Benjamin Netanyahu, Eisenkot is now preferred for prime minister by a 3% margin—marking the first time he has taken the lead. Bennett, meanwhile, is still trailing Netanyahu by 7 points.
Let’s consider the timeline: Just two months ago, Eisenkot was the kingmaker, choosing whether to back Bennett or Yair Lapid to lead the opposition. Five weeks ago, Lapid was demoted to that kingmaker role as Eisenkot surged at his expense. Four weeks ago, Lapid officially crowned Bennett, supposedly unifying the opposition. Today, Eisenkot looks poised to bypass Bennett and steal that crown from his head.
This is shaping up to be one of the most impressive dark-horse campaigns in Israeli political history. However, after all the ideological compromises Bennett has made to secure his current position, he is unlikely to surrender his leadership of the bloc without a fight. Depending on the fate of the dissolution bill, the ultimate face-off with Netanyahu is anywhere from three to five months away. But if the opposition hopes to win, only one person can wear the crown.
The first women to pass IDF Sayeret Matkal training posing with her unit.
Israeli special forces are navigating through broken shards as yet another glass ceiling shatters. Yesterday, the IDF announced that for the first time in history, a woman has graduated from the incredibly intensive special forces course for the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit (Sayeret Matkal)—Israel’s equivalent to Delta Force. She is now slated to join the unit’s operational activities.
As part of a pilot program launched in December 2024, this soldier spent 18 months enduring one of the most grueling training pipelines in the world to join Sayeret Matkal. Internal reports have revealed that certain entry thresholds were adjusted for women and that she bypassed the standard selection phase; still, her graduation remains a significant achievement. Step away from the broader debate over women in combat and you are left with a simple truth: she endured immense physical and mental strain, she passed the tests the IDF applied, and she earned her spot.
While women have increasingly integrated into other elite units in recent years, the few who previously qualified for Sayeret Matkal’s selection process ultimately washed out of the punishing 18-month track. With this breakthrough, Shayetet 13—Israel’s Navy SEALs—remains the only elite force in the IDF without female members.
This groundbreaking soldier joins a growing legacy of female combat heroes in the IDF. Her milestone echoes the bravery seen on October 7, when seven female tank crew members fought Hamas militants continuously for 17 hours. That battle marked the first time in modern military history that an all-female armored unit engaged in active combat, successfully eliminating roughly 50 terrorists. Those warriors—and the IDF’s newest special forces graduate—prove that when the nation needs them most, women can, and will, hold the line.
English Editor: Ari Tatarka
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