Trump Sets a Deadline that Hamas Won't Keep
Also, a miraculous economic year ends, and is Israel's baby boom over?
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu shacking hands at their meeting on Monday. (@netanyahu/X)
It’s Wednesday, December 31, and Donald Trump says there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas does not disarm within a “very short period.” According to an exclusive report from Israel Hayom, that “short period” is two months. But will that make any difference?
The report says Trump has now established metrics for the terror group’s dismantlement. That’s right—until now, there weren’t any benchmarks. That gap gave Hamas plenty of room for creative reinterpretation of the agreement. You might remember when “disarmament” turned into “freezing” weapons, and a new distinction between “heavy” versus “light” armaments materialized.
So far, the only new criterion we know of concerns the destruction of the tunnels—and that’s not a small detail. The tunnel network is Hamas’s deadliest weapon. Unlike Kalashnikovs, you can’t just smuggle in a few new tunnels once you’ve handed the old ones to an international force.
All of this would be fantastic if not for one simple fact: it doesn’t change anything.
Look, I’m an Orthodox Jew. The letter of the law and the words of the rabbis matter to me. But I suspect Hamas isn’t treating the wording of the agreement they signed like scripture—or Trump as a religious authority. Shockingly, an “armed resistance” group doesn’t have much interest in upholding a peace plan that strips them of their armed resistance.
All this is to say, Trump adding metrics doesn’t make Hamas any more likely to disarm.
But here’s what it does do: it creates a clear standard—a measuring stick that points to the conclusion Israel has been nudging Trump toward for the past two months: only Israel will disarm Hamas.
Now, two months may seem like a long time for Israel to wait, but they’re in a comfortable position. Israel can now sit on the 53 percent of the Strip, collect intelligence, carry out selective strikes, and—thanks to yesterday’s meeting—feel no meaningful international pressure.
As one Israeli official told me: “We’re in no rush for anything. We’ll wait until Trump realizes there’s no other way to dismantle Hamas except through a military operation.”
The Tel Aviv skyline. (Miki Spitzer)
Put yourself behind a veil of ignorance for a moment. Imagine a tiny country that’s been at war for 10 months straight. Hundreds of thousands of reservists pulled from their jobs. Flights in and out almost impossible to find.
Now add this: That same year, the country faced a direct confrontation with its archrival—the regional superpower—and endured hundreds of ballistic missiles raining down on its cities.
So tell me, how would you expect that country’s economy to look at year’s end?
This thought experiment sounds facetious, I know. But only because we’ve all grown used to the economic miracle that is Israel. So let’s take a moment to appreciate the small wonders.
At the close of 2025, Israel ranked as the third-best-performing economy in the OECD. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange finished among the top three markets worldwide. If you’d invested $1,000 in the TA-125 on January 1, you’d be looking at about $1,540 today.
Unemployment? 3 percent.
Inflation? A manageable 3 percent.
Growth? A healthy 3.3 percent.
And for Israelis who love to travel—which is to say, all of them—a nice bonus: the shekel hit a four-year high against the dollar.
Not bad for a nation supposedly on the brink.
Now, step behind that veil again—and imagine a vast country. Safe borders. Young population. Endless oil wealth. You’d expect prosperity, right?
Meet the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Reality there is far less miraculous: falling living standards, 45 percent inflation, 20 percent unemployment, and a currency that just hit an all-time low.
Now, I’m not saying Jews control international finance—I’ll leave that to some concerningly popular podcasters—but whoever does seems to really hate it when someone attacks the Jewish state.
My son born last month. (Credit: my wife)
Israel’s population grew by less than 1 percent this year—0.9 percent—marking a historic low in national growth. Now, complaining about a tenth of a percent might sound petty. After all, countries like Japan and Korea pray for a birth rate like Israel’s. But let’s take a closer look.
According to researchers at the Taub Center for Social Policy Studies, the slowdown is the product of three converging trends:
More deaths, as large Jewish and Arab age groups move into their 70s and 80s.
Falling birth rates across nearly all sectors.
A growing number of Israelis leaving the country, outpacing immigration.
It’s worth noting: Since 1950, Israel’s population has never grown by less than 1.5% annually—except for two minor dips. This year breaks that record.
Let’s take this one by one.
The growing number of older Israelis was inevitable—but it’s also remarkable. They are the first generation to grow old in the State of Israel. Think about it: Israel is still in her late 70s. A baby born the day Ben-Gurion announced independence is now celebrating their seventy-seventh-and-a-half birthday. According to the Jewish custom of wishing someone a long life, they’ve still got 43 years left.
Now, birth rate—that’s a different story. Israel has long prided itself on being the only country in the OECD with an above-replacement fertility rate, nearly double the OECD average. That hasn’t changed—but the details are shifting. Fertility among non-Jews has fallen by roughly 30 percent in recent years. The research paper also projects a decline among Jewish women, but in 2024 it actually increased slightly. Even if the Jewish State’s population isn’t growing, the Jewish population is.
And then there’s emigration. In 2025, there was a net loss of about 37,000 people—more Israelis left than arrived. But even here, the picture is more nuanced. Many of those departing were recent immigrants, such as Ukrainians who came in 2022. Yet the number of native-born Israelis leaving has also risen significantly in the past few years.
But not all of these departures are permanent. Some are part of the natural “back-and-forth” of a globalized, mobile population—academics, entrepreneurs, tech professionals—whose temporary relocation benefits Israel in the long run.
Cards on the table: I’m an optimist. After welcoming another child last month, how could I not be?
A 0.9 percent growth rate may look like a slowdown on paper, but in context—with Israel still young, still growing, and just finished with an intense war—it feels to me less like the end of an era, and more like a country catching its breath.
I think it will be a great year to come.
Happy New Year!
