11 Comments
User's avatar
Les Vitailles's avatar

Centrifuges are delicate machines that, internally, spin at supersonic speeds and require a highly stable electricity supply. IAEA Rafael Grossi stated after the 12 Day War that the destruction of the electric plant at Natanz was likely to have destroyed all the centrifuges underground there too.

Saul's avatar

Left unsaid (perhaps understandably) is the internal situation in Iran. Clearly there are many variables in this regard whose impact is likely to bear directly on any analysis of the "Lion" operation.

Nathan Brown's avatar

Thank you Amit .. Hayman and Steinitz views are essential reading.

Thomas M. Conroy's avatar

The simple fact is that bombing campaigns rarely achieve their goals.and their proponents consistently overate their effects. Countries with powerful air forces favor them because they are easy to do, result in few losses and on the surface create a picture of vast destruction.

But you can’t eliminate knowledge through bombing. Usually the destruction is less than first assumed. And a country with an ally like China can readily replace equipment which isn’t salvageable.

Les Vitailles's avatar

"you can’t eliminate knowledge through bombing"

Actually you can, since knowledge only lives inside human heads and you can bomb the heads.

Thus the logic of the Allied bombing raid on Peenemunde, the center of Nazi Germany V2 rocket development. By targeting the staff dormitories in the middle of the night, the RAF was able to incinerate, among others, the chief of rocket engine development.

Thomas M. Conroy's avatar

And that of course is the reason the Germans were never able to develope V2 rockets..

Sigh.

Les Vitailles's avatar

It's the reason the Germans never developed the A4 prototype that could reach NYC by skipping over the earth's atmosphere, presumably with a chemical weapon.

And why the V2's range was never extended.

Thomas M. Conroy's avatar

Eliminating individual scientists would be about as successful as eliminating individual political leaders. There will always be someone to replace them.

Steve's avatar

Rabbi Nachman Biderman and his followers light a bonfire during Lag BaOmer celebrations, in Meron, 2025. (David Cohen/Flash90)

Completely Off Topic, a question from a gentile. What's With The Hats?

Thanks.

Steve's avatar

All's Not So Quiet on Any Front

"CENTCOM confirms Iran has NOT successfully struck ANY Navy ships this morning, despite claiming they’ve done so." —Eric Daugherty on X

https://www.kunstler.com/p/alls-not-so-quiet-on-any-front

James Howard Kunstler

May 04, 2026

Project Freedom. Cute move! Notice that it’s not Operation Freedom. That would frame it as a military move. The President is tactically framing this as a humanitarian action. Mr. Trump has advised Congress as of May 1 that hostilities with Iran (Operation Epic Fury) are terminated, at the 60-day limit of the War Powers Resolution. Commercial ships from countries not involved in the Iran / US dispute will now get escorted safely through the Strait of Hormuz by US naval vessels.

(Snip)