A lot to digest here. I did point out some time ago that Israel would find trump to be an unreliable ally. Something that any reader of the nyc tabloids in the 80s and 90s could have predicted.
I’ll also throw out this. The failure of both the us and Israeli militaries to learn the lessons of the Ukraine war and rapidly adapt to the age of drone warfare plays a large part in creating the stalemate both countries find themselves in.
It’s not the average person on the street who will overthrow the regime. It is the sector of the elites, the ninety percent that are in it for the money and power who are not ideologically invested. To get them to revolt you must destroy the source of the cash flow that benefits these elites. Western intellectuals think you must preserve Iran’s oil industry so the country can be rebuilt. But if you want to change the Iran’s future and free its people, you must destroy its oil industry.
Insofar as the Iranian regime has directly attacked Israel, given Israel’s response, hasn’t the door now been opened for Prime Minister Netanyahu to demand a seat at the negotiating table?
It’s sitting across from Lebanon even if the latter has no effective control over Hezbollah. Why not sit across from Iran which has complete control over its terror proxy.
If both President Trump and Netanyahu make that negotiation demand, and Iran refuses because it won’t dignify the “cancerous Zionist entity” with the recognition such talks would bestow, at least it would be a PR victory for the West in exposing the underlying and often eluded reality of the conflict - although, given the locked-in media narrative, a one-day and deeply buried story. Still, it would be a revealing moment.
Sadly, Trump is following in the footsteps of previous Presidents obsessed with the resolution of conflict and the equality of all nations seeking universal harmony reflecting a sentimentalist desire for liberal American principle at the expense of tried and true 'Balance of Power' politics. The fact that this liberal principle has never resulted in a positive outcome should alert all thinking people to the danger that lies ahead for a world immersed in self-delusion. Israel can no longer afford divorcing itself from its self-interest to curry favour with a self-obsessed United States.
America proves itself to be a lightweight when it comes face to face with moral liability and the will to impose military, economic and diplomatic power over its enemies.
"situation is deeply reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War"
But it is not: in 1991 the US was desperate to preserve the alliance with Arab countries in the impending war against Iraq. An Israeli attack could have embarrassed Arab coalition members into leaving.
Today the UAE is open about being an Israeli partner and other Arab countries have been unruffled about joint US Israeli attacks on Iran.
The change is enormous: Iran, unlike Iraq in 1991, does not command sympathy in the Arab world and is viewed as a threat.
This situation points toward the need for Israel to continue building a defense industry that can produce the kind of weapons they currently buy from the US. President Trump is the biggest Israel supporter since Clinton but unfortunately, the Democratic Party is now fully anti-Israel and there are plenty in the Republican Party who are as well.
Trump holding back Israel from defending herself is a precursor to what the landscape will look like when Trump leaves office.
"Regime change," you write. What is that if not killing the top dozen mullahs and generals, which has apparently been done. It appears the IGRC is a many-headed snake. They don't need a regime to tell them what to do: they have access to missiles and can launch them when they want to. Is there some individual or small group of individuals Israel and the US have overlooked in their attacks? Or do they need to start hunting and capturing/killing IRGC cadre all over the country? That sounds like a path to an overwhelming loss in the November elections for Trump's allies.
A lot to digest here. I did point out some time ago that Israel would find trump to be an unreliable ally. Something that any reader of the nyc tabloids in the 80s and 90s could have predicted.
I’ll also throw out this. The failure of both the us and Israeli militaries to learn the lessons of the Ukraine war and rapidly adapt to the age of drone warfare plays a large part in creating the stalemate both countries find themselves in.
It’s not the average person on the street who will overthrow the regime. It is the sector of the elites, the ninety percent that are in it for the money and power who are not ideologically invested. To get them to revolt you must destroy the source of the cash flow that benefits these elites. Western intellectuals think you must preserve Iran’s oil industry so the country can be rebuilt. But if you want to change the Iran’s future and free its people, you must destroy its oil industry.
Insofar as the Iranian regime has directly attacked Israel, given Israel’s response, hasn’t the door now been opened for Prime Minister Netanyahu to demand a seat at the negotiating table?
It’s sitting across from Lebanon even if the latter has no effective control over Hezbollah. Why not sit across from Iran which has complete control over its terror proxy.
If both President Trump and Netanyahu make that negotiation demand, and Iran refuses because it won’t dignify the “cancerous Zionist entity” with the recognition such talks would bestow, at least it would be a PR victory for the West in exposing the underlying and often eluded reality of the conflict - although, given the locked-in media narrative, a one-day and deeply buried story. Still, it would be a revealing moment.
Sadly, Trump is following in the footsteps of previous Presidents obsessed with the resolution of conflict and the equality of all nations seeking universal harmony reflecting a sentimentalist desire for liberal American principle at the expense of tried and true 'Balance of Power' politics. The fact that this liberal principle has never resulted in a positive outcome should alert all thinking people to the danger that lies ahead for a world immersed in self-delusion. Israel can no longer afford divorcing itself from its self-interest to curry favour with a self-obsessed United States.
America proves itself to be a lightweight when it comes face to face with moral liability and the will to impose military, economic and diplomatic power over its enemies.
Again Israel cannot afford such indulgence.
"situation is deeply reminiscent of the 1991 Gulf War"
But it is not: in 1991 the US was desperate to preserve the alliance with Arab countries in the impending war against Iraq. An Israeli attack could have embarrassed Arab coalition members into leaving.
Today the UAE is open about being an Israeli partner and other Arab countries have been unruffled about joint US Israeli attacks on Iran.
The change is enormous: Iran, unlike Iraq in 1991, does not command sympathy in the Arab world and is viewed as a threat.
But none of the gulf states will stand with Israel against Iran. They’re just absorbing everything Iran throws at them without retaliating.
The UAE have reportedly attacked Iran in the last round and have received an Iron Dome battery, with IDF personnel to run it, as well.
All the Gulf states have helped Israel intercept Iranian missiles by sharing intelligence and, in some cases, shooting them down.
Nothing like that in 1991.
This situation points toward the need for Israel to continue building a defense industry that can produce the kind of weapons they currently buy from the US. President Trump is the biggest Israel supporter since Clinton but unfortunately, the Democratic Party is now fully anti-Israel and there are plenty in the Republican Party who are as well.
Trump holding back Israel from defending herself is a precursor to what the landscape will look like when Trump leaves office.
Trump is showing a lot of weakness last few weeks. I'm glad Israel attacked in iran just to show that we won't be silent went we get attacked
"Regime change," you write. What is that if not killing the top dozen mullahs and generals, which has apparently been done. It appears the IGRC is a many-headed snake. They don't need a regime to tell them what to do: they have access to missiles and can launch them when they want to. Is there some individual or small group of individuals Israel and the US have overlooked in their attacks? Or do they need to start hunting and capturing/killing IRGC cadre all over the country? That sounds like a path to an overwhelming loss in the November elections for Trump's allies.
Joe Biden’s infamous April 2024 warning to Iran: “Don’t.”
Wasn’t that right after October 7th?