President Trump seems to be the ultimate disrupter … at least when it comes to the MSM commentary. The conventional political wisdom is that November elections that are months away - in this case now 5 - may as well be an eternity. Yet, it is discussed as if they were imminent and the driving political calculation. In “normal” times, the dreaded October surprise - in this context, the collapse of the Iranian regime - would not only be the topic of discussion.
And maybe this focus on the midterms is the Democrats’ and media’s way of preventing such a surprise by undermining any domestic support. Hard to say, but nothing would surprise me given Tom Friedman’s open admission that he would not want Iran defeated if it benefited Trump or Netanyahu politically.
Similarly, when Trump extends a deadline to talk more, he is accused of cowardice. When he enforces a deadline, he is an untrustworthy warmonger who attacks while talks are ongoing.
It makes entire sense to privilege Operation Economic Fury over Operation Epic Fury as it protects military personnel and assets while undermining the regime. And, as the commentariat has declared that the IRGC cannot be defeated militarily and wins by surviving amidst the rubble, its implicit demand for kinetic strikes as “proof” of Trump’s seriousness is the height of intellectual dishonesty.
At the end of the day, I imagine that Trump understands that any resolution of the current conflict that does not include the removal of all the enriched uranium will be interpreted as a “humiliation” and make Obama look good.
On the Iranian side, if Bernard Lewis is right, the regime wants an apocalypse; what the West understands as deterrence it sees as a theological incentive.
Its reaction to the transit, a failed attack against the USN and an attack on the UAE, demonstrates the regime’s inability to protect itself in the event of a renewed attack. There is no need for a massive US strike so long as the economic strangulation continues. Specific IRGC and regime targets should be hit.
Such restraint will increase the pressure on China to lean heavily on its Iranian ally - but it will face the same theological wall. Then the question becomes, does it cut the regime loose and position itself as friendly to any emerging opposition to be in a better diplomatic posture? Only time will tell.
Amit seems to have missed the fact that Trump killed off Project Freedom with a tweet early yesterday evening. Hardly surprising: the US doesn’t have the naval resources to escort vessels through the strait and apparently no ship owners were willing to take a chance on trumps sort of promise of security. Nor were any allies (former allies?) willing to join in the venture. A good thing, since anyone who has followed the war in Ukraine knows that all navy ships are now vulnerable to drone swarms.
I’m not a betting person, but I am willing to bet a large martini that the blockade will be over by the time Trump heads for Peking next week. I don’t think Trump wants to spend two days being yelled at by Chairman Xi. Just my not very humble opinion. Any takers?
"the US doesn’t have the naval resources to escort vessels through the strait"
It took only a pair of USN destroyers to escort two oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz a few days ago and a little more to do so in 1987 under President Reagan.
President Xi is in no condition to yell at Trump, with his oil bill significantly higher because his discounted Iranian oil has disappeared.
Trump has a winning hand against Iran. His big decision is to stop the war, which is a precondition for an Iranian uprising, just as it was in 2025 after the 12 Day War
The two escorted vessels were US flagged ships. Both were under contract to the Department of Defense. Neither were oil tankers. Project freedom ended before it began. So much winning…..
I believe what we are seeing is more political theater which is a show in Trump’s favor. Iran is collapsing, albeit slowly, and the IRGC is firmly in control. As a military, they’ll not negotiate a deal to give away their nukes. And, as a theocracy, surrender is not in their vocabulary. So, while the escort program is “paused”, as Amit notes, Trump’s foot is still on the throat of the Mullahs.
Trump’s rhetoric is calming the markets, but some of it is aimed at the Mullahs.
I would predict that there will be a resumption of strikes against the Iranian regime to push the IRGC out. However, whatever organized opposition within Iran needs to step up and give the final push. If the IRGC resumes the massacre, the International community, jeez, maybe even the Euros, needs to pressure the IRGC. Well… the Euros just might write a strong letter to the useless UN.
A prediction what Trump may decide or when he will come up with a decision is completely unpredictable.. but I agree, he will avoid „being yelled at by Xi“. Nicely put 😁
Amit, you often make me tear up with your newsletters.
a deal is dumb, deranged & despicable and so is the Iranian representation on un boards of human Rights and women being oppressed 🤦🏼♀️
the water crisis was dire a year ago yet 🤷🏼♂️
President Trump seems to be the ultimate disrupter … at least when it comes to the MSM commentary. The conventional political wisdom is that November elections that are months away - in this case now 5 - may as well be an eternity. Yet, it is discussed as if they were imminent and the driving political calculation. In “normal” times, the dreaded October surprise - in this context, the collapse of the Iranian regime - would not only be the topic of discussion.
And maybe this focus on the midterms is the Democrats’ and media’s way of preventing such a surprise by undermining any domestic support. Hard to say, but nothing would surprise me given Tom Friedman’s open admission that he would not want Iran defeated if it benefited Trump or Netanyahu politically.
Similarly, when Trump extends a deadline to talk more, he is accused of cowardice. When he enforces a deadline, he is an untrustworthy warmonger who attacks while talks are ongoing.
It makes entire sense to privilege Operation Economic Fury over Operation Epic Fury as it protects military personnel and assets while undermining the regime. And, as the commentariat has declared that the IRGC cannot be defeated militarily and wins by surviving amidst the rubble, its implicit demand for kinetic strikes as “proof” of Trump’s seriousness is the height of intellectual dishonesty.
At the end of the day, I imagine that Trump understands that any resolution of the current conflict that does not include the removal of all the enriched uranium will be interpreted as a “humiliation” and make Obama look good.
On the Iranian side, if Bernard Lewis is right, the regime wants an apocalypse; what the West understands as deterrence it sees as a theological incentive.
Its reaction to the transit, a failed attack against the USN and an attack on the UAE, demonstrates the regime’s inability to protect itself in the event of a renewed attack. There is no need for a massive US strike so long as the economic strangulation continues. Specific IRGC and regime targets should be hit.
Such restraint will increase the pressure on China to lean heavily on its Iranian ally - but it will face the same theological wall. Then the question becomes, does it cut the regime loose and position itself as friendly to any emerging opposition to be in a better diplomatic posture? Only time will tell.
Amit seems to have missed the fact that Trump killed off Project Freedom with a tweet early yesterday evening. Hardly surprising: the US doesn’t have the naval resources to escort vessels through the strait and apparently no ship owners were willing to take a chance on trumps sort of promise of security. Nor were any allies (former allies?) willing to join in the venture. A good thing, since anyone who has followed the war in Ukraine knows that all navy ships are now vulnerable to drone swarms.
I’m not a betting person, but I am willing to bet a large martini that the blockade will be over by the time Trump heads for Peking next week. I don’t think Trump wants to spend two days being yelled at by Chairman Xi. Just my not very humble opinion. Any takers?
"the US doesn’t have the naval resources to escort vessels through the strait"
It took only a pair of USN destroyers to escort two oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz a few days ago and a little more to do so in 1987 under President Reagan.
President Xi is in no condition to yell at Trump, with his oil bill significantly higher because his discounted Iranian oil has disappeared.
Trump has a winning hand against Iran. His big decision is to stop the war, which is a precondition for an Iranian uprising, just as it was in 2025 after the 12 Day War
The two escorted vessels were US flagged ships. Both were under contract to the Department of Defense. Neither were oil tankers. Project freedom ended before it began. So much winning…..
I believe what we are seeing is more political theater which is a show in Trump’s favor. Iran is collapsing, albeit slowly, and the IRGC is firmly in control. As a military, they’ll not negotiate a deal to give away their nukes. And, as a theocracy, surrender is not in their vocabulary. So, while the escort program is “paused”, as Amit notes, Trump’s foot is still on the throat of the Mullahs.
Trump’s rhetoric is calming the markets, but some of it is aimed at the Mullahs.
I would predict that there will be a resumption of strikes against the Iranian regime to push the IRGC out. However, whatever organized opposition within Iran needs to step up and give the final push. If the IRGC resumes the massacre, the International community, jeez, maybe even the Euros, needs to pressure the IRGC. Well… the Euros just might write a strong letter to the useless UN.
מזל טוב Aviah. This is amazing.
A prediction what Trump may decide or when he will come up with a decision is completely unpredictable.. but I agree, he will avoid „being yelled at by Xi“. Nicely put 😁
Amit, you often make me tear up with your newsletters.