Wonderfully written. I subscribe to a relatively high number of Substack and other newsletters and Amit’s is by far the best, with Bari’s The Free Press, second.
As a husband who has been periodically nagged to get off the couch and run a marathon, I have the greatest empathy for the Saudis receiving this advice 😆
Saudi Arabia's defense budget was double Israel's in 2025. It has twice the number of F15s (although no F16s) and twice as many air refueling tankers. Compare the Saudi air war against the Houthis with Israel's 12 Day War against Iran in 2025.
Saudi Arabia's military technology barely surpasses the level of hiring foreign technicians. It was pathetic to see primitive Pakistani J17 Thunder fighters take part in the war against the Houthis because Saudi Arabia's air force is insufficient. That a ballistic missile on Riyadh went undetected shows how undeveloped Saudi military capabilities are.
If they need an ally that will pull out all the stops to help against Iran and its proxies, they should look to the UAE and normalize with Israel.
You can have all the war fighting equipment in the world, but if you have an incompetent military it means nothing. And that is the crux of the problem with the Saudi military.
I recall reading an article years ago written by an American serviceman who was sent there to train them on American equipment. In a nutshell, he said it was almost hopeless.
I can’t recall all the details he went into this many years on, but one problem I recall was the tribal divisions caused a great deal of the trouble: those of supposedly higher tribal rank being offended at lower ranked tribe members receiving higher positions or status, for one.
Also, Saudi military tribal factions don't work side by side together very well, they don't trust one another, and that hurts the unit combat ferocity.
MBS has been working to fix this but it’s baked into the culture.
So, that problem still ripples through all military actions.
From the inscription on the War of Independence Memorial in Sufa:
"It stands on a hill overlooking Gaza on one side and Sufa’s orchards on the other. Inscribed on its concrete wall are the famous words: “It is not the tank that will triumph, but the man.”
As an American and I know we should not comment on Israeli elections but Amit you touched on the third rail in your second piece - the Haredim. If I were in the Opposition, this is the rail to step on because it’s the internal existential threat to the country. Haredim must send their children to the army. And with the brain drain, the country will not be able to financially support the Haredim without some limits on what percentage of the budget they receive in support. The Opposition will lose if they don’t make this their central theme. It’s the only issue in which a Bibi supporter would flip to an alt candidate….
Wonderfully written. I subscribe to a relatively high number of Substack and other newsletters and Amit’s is by far the best, with Bari’s The Free Press, second.
So the Saudis need to be more like Israel...
As a husband who has been periodically nagged to get off the couch and run a marathon, I have the greatest empathy for the Saudis receiving this advice 😆
Saudi Arabia's defense budget was double Israel's in 2025. It has twice the number of F15s (although no F16s) and twice as many air refueling tankers. Compare the Saudi air war against the Houthis with Israel's 12 Day War against Iran in 2025.
Saudi Arabia's military technology barely surpasses the level of hiring foreign technicians. It was pathetic to see primitive Pakistani J17 Thunder fighters take part in the war against the Houthis because Saudi Arabia's air force is insufficient. That a ballistic missile on Riyadh went undetected shows how undeveloped Saudi military capabilities are.
If they need an ally that will pull out all the stops to help against Iran and its proxies, they should look to the UAE and normalize with Israel.
You can have all the war fighting equipment in the world, but if you have an incompetent military it means nothing. And that is the crux of the problem with the Saudi military.
I recall reading an article years ago written by an American serviceman who was sent there to train them on American equipment. In a nutshell, he said it was almost hopeless.
I can’t recall all the details he went into this many years on, but one problem I recall was the tribal divisions caused a great deal of the trouble: those of supposedly higher tribal rank being offended at lower ranked tribe members receiving higher positions or status, for one.
Also, Saudi military tribal factions don't work side by side together very well, they don't trust one another, and that hurts the unit combat ferocity.
MBS has been working to fix this but it’s baked into the culture.
So, that problem still ripples through all military actions.
Exactly!
From the inscription on the War of Independence Memorial in Sufa:
"It stands on a hill overlooking Gaza on one side and Sufa’s orchards on the other. Inscribed on its concrete wall are the famous words: “It is not the tank that will triumph, but the man.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/were-not-breaking-the-untold-heroics-of-the-female-fighters-who-held-off-hamas-at-sufa/
As an American and I know we should not comment on Israeli elections but Amit you touched on the third rail in your second piece - the Haredim. If I were in the Opposition, this is the rail to step on because it’s the internal existential threat to the country. Haredim must send their children to the army. And with the brain drain, the country will not be able to financially support the Haredim without some limits on what percentage of the budget they receive in support. The Opposition will lose if they don’t make this their central theme. It’s the only issue in which a Bibi supporter would flip to an alt candidate….